What war could mean for life in modern Britain

The numerical might of the Russian army, for all its shortcomings, is not in Ukraine's favour. If somehow the supply of defensive weapons systems from the West dries up then there could only be so much longer this beleaguered nation can hold out. Its government has stayed put in Kyiv and remained highly visible, with even the deputy prime minister dressed in a utilitarian khaki T-shirt as she addresses the nation against a backdrop of government insignia. Ukrainians are fighting for the very survival of their country as a sovereign nation, appalled at President Putin's eve-of-war speech in which he said Ukraine was basically just an artificial Russian creation. The UK and our allies condemn the Russian government’s unprovoked and premeditated invasion of Ukraine.

Even during the London Blitz in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey. If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up. The Covid lockdown, which saw fights breaking out in queues at supermarkets and garages, was a glimpse of how trouble can spark during times of nationwide panic. There would also be concerns about looting, especially if food shortages started to bite.

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British forces are often trained to behave in ways that make them less vulnerable. Providing Ukraine with access to Elon Musk's Starlink system has changed the game for its forces' ability to communicate in the field. Unfortunately for the Russians, it was clear they hadn't planned sufficiently well to undertake an effective invasion, and the forces operating their equipment were not well enough trained to adapt when things went wrong. While analysts say a direct conflict between NATO and Russia is unlikely, it is possible - particularly in the Baltic states, or Finland. Nato has said it will listen to Russia’s concerns about wanting Ukraine not to join the organisation but its core values, of allowing each nation to choose its own path and defending all allies, will not be compromised.

• On Tuesday, Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, met with the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, where he urged others to join the UK in increasing their aid.
• A number of European countries also rehearse for civil emergencies - with exercises that involve ordinary citizens as well as the military.
• Opposition leaders including Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer criticised the initial package of sanctions for being too soft.
• Under constant drone surveillance and enemy bombardment, life has gradually drained from Kherson's streets.
• He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers.

So far, that has yet to happen, with relatively few reported cyber attacks linked to Russia in the last few months. But Air Vice Marshal Bell, who previously headed a strategic combat review for the RAF, says the reasons for this are not clear. Assuming both sides weren't annihilated by nuclear weapons, they assumed a Soviet invasion would lead to a war in western Europe, and trained and equipped UK forces would need to counter that threat. The UK's defence secretary has also warned that we need to be prepared for a war.

Will the UK go to war with Russia?

General Sir Patrick Sanders will stress the need for the Government to “mobilise the nation” in the event of war with Russia in a speech on Wednesday. He highlighted the threat from Russia and pointed to steps being taken by other European nations to put their populations on a "war footing". But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces.

The UK’s total energy demand fell by 22 per cent between 2000 and 2019, reflecting both a shift away from more energy-intensive industries and improvements in economy-wide energy efficiency. Despite the share of renewable energy increasing 11-fold over this period, the share of gas and oil in energy consumption has remained reasonably stable at 73 per cent owing to declining coal and nuclear power (Chart B, top-right panel). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the run-up to our March 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook represented a significant adverse shock, primarily via a sharp rise in gas and oil prices. In this box, we considered where the UK gets its energy from and the channels through which higher energy prices raise inflation. We then set out how the economic shock from the invasion had been reflected in our forecast as well as several potential channels through which the invasion could affect the UK economy that our forecast did not explicitly capture.

UK citizen army: Preparing the 'pre-war generation' for conflict

“Wheat prices went up £15 a tonne” in the hours after Putin gave the order for an invasion, the broadcaster said, while “soybeans hit their highest prices since 2012” and “corn jumped to an eight-month peak”. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-will-happen-if-russia-wins-ukraine.html has already announced a package of sanctions against Russia, targeting Kremlin-linked billionaires, banks and companies. However, those sanctions are “now expected to be significantly expanded”, said The Times. Many countries have already raced to impose other sanctions on Moscow following the unprovoked attack on Ukraine.

• It is extremely unlikely that the UK will go to war with Russia any time soon.
• It is now a professional force of around 73,000, compared to around 100,000 in 2010.
• The UK stands with Ukraine, its democratically-elected government and its brave people at this awful time.
• Many countries have already raced to impose other sanctions on Moscow following the unprovoked attack on Ukraine.
• Air strikes continued overnight and into the early hours of Friday, with attacks being reported across the country - including on the capital Kyiv.
• Indeed, for all the foreboding about societal collapse, facing a common threat could give Britain a new-found sense of unity – something many Ukrainians speak of.

Some migrants might stay in neighbouring Poland and eastern European countries, but some might head further west and eventually end up in the UK. Many analysts fear war in Ukraine could potentially spill over into other European countries. But both of these demands would break key Nato principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all Nato members should be sovereign nations. Russia wants Nato to make a legally binding promise that Ukraine will never become a member. It also wants Nato to withdraw its forces from most Eastern European countries.

• Instead, he was urging Britain to prepare for a mass mobilisation of tens of thousands of people, should war break out.
• "The Ukrainians have been much cleverer than the Russians", says Prof Clarke, "because they've fought something much closer to a combined arms operation which the Russians haven't".
• We assume that wages do not rise to compensate for this bout of higher inflation which is driven by external forces.
• Russia's Vladimir Putin vowed to increase attacks on Ukraine - now Kyiv is realising what he meant.

Aside from a limited crossing further up the Dnipro near the town of Krynky, Ukrainian attacks here are only probing, and require patience. "No matter how many times we hit the same places, [the Russians] are constantly replenished," says Tymur. The smell of a strawberry vape hangs above these Ukrainian soldiers, sitting on armchairs with looks of quiet focus and cans of Monster energy drink. As we hug the side of the building and take cover in the stairwell, we're led inside from the freezing winter winds to the warmth of a militarised living room.